According to an analysis carried out by Peter Malliris of Fastmarkets, the US is set to become a net exporter of lumber again within the next five years. It is forecast that volumes will total around 2.7 bbf (around 6.37 million m³ nominal size) in 2027 already. According to Fastmarkets, Canadian export volumes outside the US are expected to stagnate in the coming years and to reach a peak of 1.37 bbf (3.23 million m³ nominal size) in 2027.
Weak domestic market boosts exports
Projected US lumber imports and exports in the next five years. In 2027 at the latest, there is supposed to be an inversion of the previous trend © Fastmarkets
The latest period in which the US was a net exporter of softwood lumber was in the years from 2009 to 2016 – a time in which the domestic market was particularly weak, as Fastmarket’s Peter Malliris analyzes. Since then, US production volumes have been increasing strongly, mainly due to fast growing Southern Yellow Pine plantations in the south of the country, and will likely continue to do so in the coming years as well.
Focus not on Europe
Meanwhile, European exports to the US have seen a substantial increase in recent years (see Datacube for US softwood lumber imports). According to Fastmarkets, however, this trend is set to lose some of its momentum in the coming years – among other things because of the medium-term decrease in beetle infestation and the resulting shortage of supply in Europe.
Conversely, US exporters do not expect their shipments to Europe to increase. Instead, they hope to find other global sales channels. The Caribbean market in particular, which collapsed as a result of the Coronavirus pandemic, is said to be recovering again, and American lumber manufacturers are also hoping for sales opportunities in North Africa, the Middle East and India.
