Laminations are being ordered
The supply of visible-quality laminations for glulam is rather limited. The major glulam manufacturers have sufficient orders for their two-shift and sometimes even three-shift operations. At the beginning of this quarter, orders for laminations were thus placed for the fourth quarter. In light of the possibility that log wood of good quality could soon become even more scarce (start of winter, forestry companies’ logging volumes reached, focus on damaged wood, …), more was ordered in October than before.
What is striking is the manufacturers’ optimism that lumber prices will rise in the first quarter of 2024 as they did in the same period of this year. Lower supply and higher log prices are mentioned as the most likely scenarios. However, all of these assessments are based purely on a gut feeling, since the following frank statement of an experienced wood industrialist applies to most market participants: “I have never been as clueless about how to assess the following quarter as I am now looking to the first quarter of 2024.”
Glulam slightly more expensive again
In Germany and Italy, the price of glue-laminated timber has risen for the second month in a row. Compared to last year’s price, there is a difference of around 17%. For Germany, the Holzkurier identified a price range of €439 to €465/m³, and thus a price increase of €9/m³. The German glulam price is now almost at the same level as the Italian price (€442 to €465€/m³; +€4/m³). Since prices have been raised successfully in Italy, leading companies are talking about further increases this year.
In terms of demand, the two main European glulam markets Germany and Italy were “relieved” by other European countries. In addition to Switzerland and Austria, those are Spain and France.
Solid structural timber price probably at its lowest
Following a sharp drop in the price of raw wood for solid structural timber, the end product has seen a decrease of €45/m³ since April. In October, the price fell by another €5/m³, however, with a price range of €270 to €310/m³ (across all products and qualities), solid structural timber seems to have reached the bottom for good.
With winter just around the corner, an increase in demand for solid structural timber and glulam can only be the result of trade companies and timber trade replenishing their warehouses. A price development similar to the one of this year cannot be ruled out given the parameters of scarce log wood and more expensive lumber. There were already significant price increases in the first quarter.
US market is still helping, Canadians are coming back
There was no relief on the US softwood lumber market in October. On the contrary: In September, prices fell by another 7%. At €232/m³ the average price for lumber delivered to the Great Lakes region was 23% below last year’s level.
In the coming months, the Canadian sawmill industry will gradually overcome the restrictions imposed following the devastating wildfires. As a result, it is to be expected that Canadians will gradually return to the US market – partly at the expense of shipments from Europe.
