Economic crises and exceptional economic situations, such as the one in 2022, have a particularly strong influence on the price of quality oak log wood. Without these factors, the average price achieved in sales would be around €500/m³. The chart above shows this very clearly.
The sales seasons 1993/94, 2006/07 as well as the phases between 2015/16 and 2020/21 took place in the context of “normal years”. If you calculate the average of the average prices recorded in these years, the resulting price is €502/m³. Deviations from this mark coincide with the following events and partly subsequent phases of slowdown:
- EU economic crisis from 1992 to 1996
- Dot-com bubble from 1995 to 2001
- Global financial crisis from 2007 to 2008
- European debt crisis from 2009 to 2010
- Recession at the end of 2014
- The boom year of 2022
Compared to the 2021/22 season, the average price rose again by 5% in this period to €803/m³. Future developments are difficult to predict. Specialist books on analyses of the raw material market mention that after prices have broken the proverbial sound barrier, they may stabilize at a permanently higher level. However, both buyers and sellers say that local hardwood sawmills cannot or will not be able to sustain the latest prices much longer. On this topic, we recommend the Holzkurier’s interview with Steffen Rathke, Managing Director of the sawmill Sägewerk Keck of Ehningen/DE, and the article about this year’s sales event for quality log wood and lumber in Enzkreis (both in German only).
