When it comes to log wood, there is a growing gap between regions with a lot of damaged wood (such as Tyrol and Upper Carinthia) and those that have had a “clear-out” (such as Lower Austria, central and northern Germany). There is currently a price difference of nearly €50/m³ between damaged sawlogs and the regional supply of fresh log wood.
Much less damaged wood
Abundant rainfall over the past few weeks has temporarily eased the bark beetle situation. In the next two to three weeks, more beetle-damaged wood will accumulate in the hotspots, but volumes will be much smaller than in previous years. Also, those volumes are distributed quickly. The lack of the “usual” volumes of damaged wood raises the question of whether supply might be insufficient in the coming months. This is a likely possibility since unaffected forestry companies, too, have learned to harvest with caution in the summer because damaged wood could still accumulate.
Two scenarios: too little or enough for weak demand
When it comes to log wood, there are two possible scenarios:
- The volumes of lumber ordered are often smaller than in previous years. The expected harvest volumes could match the reduced cutting in sawmills.
- The log wood pipeline will soon run dry. Reduced supply could result in rising prices in the third quarter.
The large Tyrolean timber companies are relaxed. In addition to the damaged wood from 2023, another 100,000 m³ have accumulated since the beginning of June due to a hailstorm. With the good domestic supply, the companies are operating in Bavaria without pressure.
More fresh wood to come this year
The biggest German supplier of log wood, the Bavarian State Forests (BaySF), is expecting substantially smaller volumes of damaged wood this year. Accordingly, their customers are being told: “If you want wood, it will increasingly be fresh log wood.” The price level there is around €20/m³ away from what large timber companies are offering.
In the Czech Republic, too, the price level is close to the Austrian one in July: €105/m³. In Bavaria, Baden-Württemberg and Austria, prices for fresh spruce/fir sawlogs B, 2b range from €86 to €105/m³ free forest road.
