In the US, bad weather has led to weaker demand for and a drop in SYP prices, which also resulted in lower prices for spruce/pine/fir (SPF) lumber. According to European suppliers, the price level is nearly €100/m³ too low for them to make a profit with sales in the US. As a result, shipments from Europe have decreased sharply by May (-25%).
Impending upswing in the US?
Many market participants expect the US market to recover soon – for several different reasons: The weather has stabilized by now, the warehouses at the ports along the East Coast are nearly empty (because there is a lack of European goods) and recently, smaller volumes were imported from Canada. The same is true for Japan. That could also help European suppliers.
In May, the price of solid structural timber was still very low compared to that of the raw wood used for its production (around €240 to €250/m³). Nevertheless, production output seems to have remained constant despite the double-digit decreases in demand for this product in the DACH region both in 2023 and this year.
In the first half of 2024, stock levels of finished solid structural timber were relatively high. Now that the summer vacation season is about to start, this indicates a further decrease in sales of solid structural timber. Furthermore, there are still no signs of an upswing in the single- and two-family home construction segment.
What to produce: Solid structural timber or products for the US?
Grades and dimensions which are tailored to the US market are an alternative to raw wood for solid structural timber. However, since products for the US are not very attractive this year, many producers will likely stick with cutting wood for solid structural timber.
When it comes to CLT, producers are satisfied with having a sufficient utilization of their two shifts. Delivery times mostly range from twelve to 16 weeks again. The increase in demand is mainly driven by commercial and public construction projects. Most glulam producers also report a “surprisingly strong demand”. In the past four weeks, several bigger timber construction projects were launched. The sales situation has improved significantly. The Holzkurier identifies prices from €495 to €510/m³ for bulk quantities of visible-quality bars in Germany. Compared to April, this corresponds to an increase of around €5/m³.
