Update – March 11, 2025, 10:18 a.m.
As CNN reported, the announced punitive tariffs of 25% on steel and aluminum imports from Canada are set to come into force on Wednesday, March 12. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick also announced that he plans to impose tariffs on Canadian lumber and dairy products starting on April 2.
Update – March 7, 2025, 09:50 a.m.
On Thursday, March 6, U.S. President Donald Trump suspended the 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, which had been imposed just two days earlier. According to numerous North American media reports, the suspension is set to last until April 2.
In response, Canada will delay a planned second wave of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. products worth CAD 125 billion CAD until April 2, Canadian Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc told the Reuters news agency.
Update – March 5, 2025, 09:45 a.m.
On the night leading into Tuesday, March 4, the new U.S. tariffs against Canada, Mexico, and China came into effect. The additional tariffs were originally supposed to take effect at the beginning of February but were then suspended at very short notice for one month. All three countries promptly announced retaliatory measures, leading to widespread talk of a trade war. Specifically, the U.S. imposed an additional 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico, as well as a 20% tariff on shipments from China.
Shortly before the U.S. tariffs took effect, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that his country would also impose tariffs of 25% on goods from the United States. Initially, this would apply to goods with a total value of 30 billion CAD, according to the statement. After 21 days, this figure would increase to a total of 155 billion CAD, as reported by orf.at.
According to U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick, however, the trade dispute could soon be resolved. U.S. President Trump might even announce a compromise as early as Wednesday, March 5, in which the U.S. would make concessions toward Canada and Mexico—the outcome would likely "land somewhere in the middle," reports faz.net.
In addition to the 25% tariffs mentioned above, Canadian softwood lumber shipments to the U.S. are already subject to an average tariff of 14.4% (including 7.66% anti-dumping duties). This brings the total to nearly 35%. If the U.S. Department of Commerce’s preliminary decision, planned for summer 2025, to increase anti-dumping duties to 20.07% were to take effect, the total tariff burden would exceed 50%.
Update – February 20, 2025, 04:09 p.m.
On Wednesday, February 19, Trump said he would announce new tariffs over the next month or sooner, adding wood and forestry products to the already-known list of other imported products, i.e. cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals.
Talking to reporters, Trump said he was considering to impose 25% tariffs on imported wood and forestry products, which are to take effect around April 2, when similar tariffs on cars are expected.
According to numerous US media reports, he expects that the tariffs will generate high revenue for the United States, but also offered countries a moratorium if they lowered or abolished their own tariffs on US goods.
Already last week, the Holzkurier analyzed that even if all US sawmills were to fully utilize their capacities, the US would not remotely be able to do without imported lumber. Thus, the US construction industry in particular would suffer massively from the threatened tariffs, as they would inevitably drive up the price of lumber.
Update – February 4, 2025, 07:45 a.m.
The tariffs imposed by Donald Trump on imports from Mexico and Canada were supposed to come into force on Monday, February 3, at midnight (local time; see below). However, just a few hours before, Mexico and then Canada, too, managed to avert the tariffs. Specifically, they will be paused for 30 days.
In return, Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum will send 10,000 soldiers to the US border to stop drug trafficking there, as several international media outlets report. Canada’s Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau, also mentioned new commitments, including the appointment of a government commissioner to combat fentanyl smuggling.
Monday, February 3, 2025, 08:35 a.m.
On Tuesday, February 4, new US tariffs on imports from Mexico (25%), Canada (25%) and China (10%) will most likely come into force. Immediately after the US President had followed through on this threat, which was often heard during the election campaign, Canada announced that it would impose retaliatory tariffs of 25% on US goods.
Two weeks ago, several Canadian lumber companies informed customers that they will add 25% to lumber exports to the US if the above-mentioned tariffs are introduced. Since Canadian sawmills already pay an average of 14.4% import duties on US shipments, the companies stated that they have no alternative but to increase prices by 25% to cover additional costs. It remains to be seen how consistently these announcements will be implemented.
Lumber shortage expected
“We don’t need the products that they have … we have all the trees you need,” Trump said on Thursday, when signing the executive order. With a volume of over 28 million m³ a year, the world’s biggest softwood lumber trade flow is the one from Canada to the US. Canadian deliveries also account for around a quarter of total US consumption. The US produce around 85 million m³ of softwood lumber a year. Annual consumption, however, amounts to 118 million m³.
Local economists and builders warn that the US currently does not have the industrial capacities to meet demand, and that imposing higher tariffs – or worse still, stopping Canadian lumber imports – could further exacerbate the ongoing housing affordability crisis, as numerous international media outlets report.
