Weltkarte 2023 engl.jpg — The 10 biggest softwood lumber trade flows in the world © holzkurier.com

global trade

Global market weakened in 2023

Article by Gerd Ebner (translated by Eva Guzely) | 27.03.2024 - 12:10

Last year, Scandinavians performed better than Central Europeans.

Once again, the Holzkurier surveyed over 20 statistical offices worldwide to determine the following three key trends on the global markets:

In terms of volume, global trade decreased by around 7%.
The 20 biggest trade flows shrank by 4% in volume and decreased by 32% in value.
Of the major exporting nations, only Sweden was able to slightly increase its exports.

Global market weak in 2023

Europe in particular needs global trade. One in three cubic meters produced here is sold outside the EU. Smaller export volumes increase market pressure within the EU, and lower export prices indirectly reduce prices on domestic markets as well. That is exactly what happened in 2023.

Europe’s biggest overseas market is the MENA region which imports more than 8 million m³ of softwood lumber. In 2023, slight gains were made there in 2023. Individual supplying countries such as Austria or the Baltic states were able to substantially increase their shipments (a detailed analysis will follow).

The largest single market in the world is the USA. Last year was characterized by a weakening demand for imports, which resulted in a 7% decrease and a total import volume of only 33.2 million m³. It was the smallest volume since 2015.

US-$260 instead of US-$390 on the US market

The US not only needed smaller volumes of softwood lumber last year, there was also less money to be made on the market. The value of imports fell significantly. Canada, for example, saw its revenue from softwood lumber exports to its neighbor (28 million m³; -7%) decrease by 38%, from around US-$390/m³ to only US-$260/m³ in 2023.

China nearly 5 million m³ below pre-Covid levels

In 2023, there was no real upswing on the Chinese market either. Even though the country’s imports increased by 4% year on year to a total of 17.4 million m³, this volume is well below the levels recorded in the pre-Covid years, when imports amounted to around 23 million m³.

In our research, we found that Russia was able to keep its softwood lumber exports to China constant. Nevertheless, the value of the world’s second biggest trade flow fell by 12%. Last year, Russia only earned an average of US-$197/m³ – compared to US-$225/m³ in 2022. With a total of 11.8 million m³, Russian deliveries accounted for almost 70% of China’s imports.

Of the Top 20 trade flows, the one from Russia to Uzbekistan takes the title of the cheapest lumber price (US-$155/m³). By contrast, the most lucrative softwood lumber trade flow is the one from Canada to Japan. In purely mathematical terms, US-$450 can be earned there with an average range.

Austria–Italy the no. 4 trade flow

In line with the decrease in Italian imports, Austrian deliveries, too, fell by 10%. As a result, the bilateral trade between the two countries (2.5 million m³) is now only the fourth biggest global trade flow, while softwood lumber exports from Sweden to Great Britain (2.7 million m³) are the new number three.

Around one quarter of Germany’s softwood lumber exports are headed across the Atlantic. In 2023, however, there was a significant slump in the US market, with sales decreasing by 12%, from 2.8 million m³ in 2022 to just under 2.5 million m³. This makes it the fifth largest trade flow in the world.

The Scandinavian countries performed above average last year. Sweden was the only Top 10 nation to increase its exports, while Finland maintained its export volume.

Sweden: big export volumes at a low price

With almost 14 million m³, Sweden recorded an export volume that had only been seen once before (2020). However, this success was partly achieved through significantly lower prices. Revenue from lumber sales to Great Britain fell by 18%. Double-digit decreases were also recorded in revenue generated in Egypt (-20%), the US (-41%) and the Netherlands (-22%).

Global foreign trade | 2023
Horizontal: 15 biggest importing countries					1.	2.	3.	4.	5.	6.	7.	8.	9.	10.	11.	12.	13.	14.	15.
Table of softwood lumber trade flows from the 15 biggest exporting countries to the 15 biggest importing countries as well as to the MENA region (volumes in 1,000 m³). National statistics on lumber exports were used as sources (as of March 2024).
Vertical: 15 biggest exporting countries		Total	Diff. 2022/2023	Diff. in %	USA	China	Great Britain	Italy	Japan	Germany	Egypt	Uzbekistan	Netherlands	France	Mexico	South Korea	Austria	Saudi Arabia	Belgium	Other countries	MENA region
1.	Canada	31,507	–2,070	–6	28,069	1,500	17	4	910	39	1	0	7	6	73	33	0.1	27	22	800	77
2.	Russia	20,700	–2,300	–10	6	11,895	0	0	467	0	n/s	2,030	0	0	n/s	455	0	n/s	0	n/s	n/s
3.	Sweden	13,945	296	2	1,145	716	2,680	60	643	762	1,354	0	1,055	436	0	147	59	251	272	4,363	2,819
4.	Germany	9,665	–1,114	–10	2,464	590	416	567	94	–	18	0	649	788	11	130	787	94	602	2,456	492
5.	Finland	8,339	–228	–3	85	800	707	184	618	437	1,107	0	272	476	4	21	150	382	135	2,959	2,620
6.	Austria	5,268	–479	–8	136	48	46	2,483	149	721	3	0.1	5	92	1	29	–	144	3	1,410	814
7.	USA	2,978	–46	–2	–	126	11	8	83	7	30	0	16	7	1,091	5	0	1	2	1,590	50
8.	Chile	2,431	–50	–2	146	318	0	1	196	0	0	0	0.2	0	294	384	0	150	0	941	287
9.	Latvia	2,411	–490	–17	88	53	864	20	76	201	84	0	136	74	0	95	14	4	27	675	147
10.	Brazil	2,282	–260	–10	758	205	0.1	0.4	0	0.3	1	0	1	4	565	7	0	155	0.1	586	327
11.	Belarus	1,947	–33	–2	0	900	0	0	0.1	0	n/s	370	0	0	n/s	2	0	n/s	0	675	n/s
12.	Czech Republic	1,770	–569	–24	76	19	34	243	57	398	0	0	13	6	0	17	307	3	6	590	24
14.	Ukraine	1,711	81	5	2	50	n/s	122	9	111	n/s	0	57	2	n/s	5	6	n/s	41	1,305	n/s
13.	New Zealand	1,344	–53	–4	205	210	3	0	30	1	0.1	0	50	0	2	157	0	33	2	654	59
15.	Belgium	987	–549	–36	26	42	40	0.5	0	201	7	0	117	401	0	3	0.2	0	–	150	84
	Total	107,286	–7,864	–7	33,205	17,473	4,819	3,691	3,333	2,878	2,606	2,400	2,378	2,292	2,042	1,492	1,323	1,246	1,111	19,153	7,799

Product groups: 440711, 440712, 440713, 440714, 440719. Source/Exporters: AT: Statistik Austria; BE: Eurostat, conversion of kg into m³; BR: Comex Stat – MDIC, conversion of kg into m³; CA: Statistics Canada; CZ: Czech Statistical Office; CL: Ministry of Agriculture (Minagri – Chile); DE: Destatis; FI: Finnish Customs; LV: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia; NZ: Statistics New Zealand; SE: Statistics Sweden; US: United States Department of Agriculture. Notes: Russia, Belarus, Ukraine: Figures in the table refer to data reported by the respective importing country. US: United States Department of Agriculture; CN: China Customs; JP: Statistics of Japan; KR: Korea Customs Service, conversion of kg into m³; UZ: Holzkurier estimate based on data by UN Comtrade for the period January to November 2023. Shipments from Ukraine to IT, DE, NL, FR, AT, BE acc. to Eurostat. Total volume of Russia: acc. to Roslesinforg. Belarus: “Other countries” refers to Azerbaijan (478,000 m³ in 2023 acc. to UN Comtrade), Turkey (125,200 m³ acc. to Turkish Statistical Institute) as well as Georgia, Armenia, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan (total of 72,300 m³ acc. to UN Comtrade). Ukraine: “Other countries” refers to EU countries which are not among the Top 15 importing countries (773,000 m³ in 2023 acc. to Eurostat), Turkey (381,000 m³ acc. to Turkish Statistical Institute) and Moldova (151,000 m³ acc. to UN Comtrade). In the same period of the previous year, the same countries are taken into account. Total import volumes of Egypt, Saudi Arabia and MENA region without volumes from Russia, Ukraine and Belarus | © holzkurier.com

The 20 biggest global softwood lumber trade flows | 2023
N.	Exporter	Importer	Jan – Dec in 1,000 m³		Diff. in %	Jan – Dec in US-$1,000		Diff. in %
Trade flows incl. planed timber in 1,000 m³ and US-$1,000
N.	Exporter	Importer	2022	2023	Diff. in %	2022	2023	Diff. in %
1	Canada	USA	30,086	28,069	–7	11,795,949	7,286,878	–38
2	Russia	China	11,894	11,895	0	2,674,120	2,343,768	–12
3	Sweden	Great Britain	2,399	2,680	12	933,008	769,594	–18
4	Austria	Italy	2,753	2,483	–10	878,605	640,375	–27
5	Germany	USA	2,790	2,464	–12	1,091,073	689,586	–37
6	Russia	Uzbekistan	2,121	2,030	–4	404,103	315,000	–22
7	Canada	China	1,257	1,500	19	303,137	274,498	–9
8	Sweden	Egypt	1,327	1,354	2	282,301	224,477	–20
9	Sweden	USA	1,414	1,145	–19	563,273	331,706	–41
10	Finland	Egypt	1,240	1,107	–11	254,392	173,104	–32
11	USA	Mexico	1,006	1,091	8	297,482	265,343	–11
12	Sweden	Netherlands	1,000	1,055	6	374,329	290,914	–22
13	Canada	Japan	1,102	910	–17	821,893	413,190	–50
14	Belarus	China	625	900	44	137,966	162,059	17
15	Latvia	Great Britain	1,134	864	–24	468,601	276,089	–41
16	Finland	China	931	800	–14	204,506	148,359	–27
17	Germany	France	826	788	–5	319,468	245,261	–23
18	Germany	Austria	907	787	–13	301,908	212,225	–30
19	Sweden	Denmark	760	784	3	278,561	207,471	–26
20	Sweden	Germany	747	762	2	268,812	208,590	–22

Product groups: 440711, 440712, 440713, 440714, 440719. Sources/Exporters: AT: Statistik Austria; CA: Statistics Canada; CN: China Customs, DE: Destatis; FI: Finnish Customs; LV: Central Statistical Bureau of Latvia; SE: Statistics Sweden; US: United States Department of Agriculture. Exports from RU and BY acc. To figures reported by the respective importing countries; CN: China Customs Statistics; UZ/2022: UN Comtrade, UZ/2023: Holzkurier estimate based on data published by UN Comtrade for the period Jan-Nov 2023. AT, FI, LV: conversion of EUR into USD, SE: conversion of SEK into USD | © holzkurier.com